The Federal Puthiya Thalaimurai Loksabha Survey Polls 2024 !
“Can Congress Win Kerala and West Bengal Again? A Look at The Federal Survey Results”
With the Lok Sabha elections just around the corner, all eyes are on the battleground states of Kerala and West Bengal. Both these states have a significant presence of Left parties, making them crucial in determining the outcome of the elections.
As part of their pre-poll survey, The Federal, in collaboration with its sister concerns Pya Talamar Group and APT Research Group, conducted a survey across 19 states in December 2023 and 2024 to gauge the mood of the voters.
The survey results have been a surprise, with both Kerala and West Bengal showing a shift in political sentiments.The Federal Puthiya Thalaimurai Loksabha Survey Polls 2024 !
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The Federal survey asked voters a series of questions to understand their views on various issues, including their economic status, popular government initiatives, and most influential political leaders.
Let’s take a closer look at the results for Kerala and West Bengal and try to understand what they mean for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
The Federal Puthiya Thalaimurai Loksabha Survey Polls 2024 !
Economic Status: According to The Federal survey, 11.83% of voters in Kerala have seen an improvement in their economic status in the past five years. In contrast, 54.35% say their status has remained the same, while 25.12% believe it has deteriorated.
This sentiment towards the economy could play a significant role in determining the voting pattern in Kerala.
Popular Government Initiatives: When asked about the top three initiatives of the Modi-led government, UPI emerged as the most popular scheme with 50.30% of voters in Kerala voting for it.
This was followed by the supply of rations to over 80 crore people during the COVID-19 pandemic (37.74%) and direct benefit transfer for farmers (32.82%).
Improving India’s stature internationally (20.07%) and enhancing the quality standards of national highways (38.1%) also found mention among voters.The Federal Puthiya Thalaimurai Loksabha Survey Polls 2024 !
Beneficiaries of Central Government Schemes: Only 13.36% of voters in Kerala said they were beneficiaries of any central government schemes, while 83.39% said they were not.
This indicates that the government’s flagship schemes may not have reached a significant portion of the population in the state.
The Federal Puthiya Thalaimurai Loksabha Survey Polls 2024 !
Top Determining Factors for Voting Intention: The survey also asked voters in Kerala about the issues that will determine their voting intention in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
30.76% of voters believe that price rise will play a crucial role in their voting decision, closely followed by unemployment (20.53%). Surprisingly, only 11.03% of voters said that Modi continuing as the Prime Minister would be a determining factor for them.
Popular Prime Ministers: When asked to name their top three all-time favorite prime ministers, a majority of voters in Kerala (58.47%) voted for Jawaharlal Nehru, followed by Indira Gandhi (8.11%).
Surprisingly, only 29.83% of voters named Narendra Modi as one of their favorite prime ministers. This is significantly lower than the national average, where Modi’s popularity remains high.
Most Influential Opposition Leader: When asked about the most influential opposition leader who could make a good PM candidate, 42.94% of voters in Kerala chose Rahul Gandhi, compared to only 7% who picked Mamata Banerjee.
What Does This Data Mean?
Traditionally, Kerala has been a bipolar state, with two political alliances – UDF (led by Congress) and LDF (led by CPI(M)) – dominating the state’s politics.
The results of The Federal survey are in line with this political landscape, with Congress and its leaders remaining popular among voters in the state.The Federal Puthiya Thalaimurai Loksabha Survey Polls 2024 !
The lower rating for Narendra Modi and BJP can also be attributed to the dominance of Left parties in Kerala’s political space.
However, it is worth noting that 25% of voters in Kerala still wish to see a new government at the center, indicating that there could be a shift in voting patterns in the state.
The Federal Puthiya Thalaimurai Loksabha Survey Polls 2024 !
The popularity of Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi among voters in Kerala reflects the state’s leaning towards the Congress ideology.
Image credit from The Federal Survey
This could also explain why Rahul Gandhi emerged as the most popular opposition leader who could make a good PM candidate.
Conclusion:
The results of The Federal survey for Kerala and West Bengal have thrown up some interesting insights.
While Congress continues to dominate in Kerala, West Bengal seems to be undergoing a significant political shift with the BJP making significant gains.
It will be interesting to see how these factors play out in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections and whether Congress can hold on to its grip on Kerala or make inroads into West Bengal’s political landscape.
